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Prime Minister Modi has been talking a lot about Make in India. I am sure that the project document has spelt out detailed metrics on defining success for this project. I have take a stab at defining the metrics (KPIs) the way I see them.

Before I get into those, a look at the very very topline Theory of Change for the campaign

As you can see, in order to reach the expected impact, a number of outcomes at various levels need to fall in place.

Please note

  1. This is a relatively simplistic model of how change will happen. It does not, for instance, take into consideration global competition, perception of manufacturers of the campaign deliverables, inertia in the system that delays the most well intentioned projects etc. 
  2. The KPI list is not in any way close to be exhaustive.
  3. These are KPIs and not TARGETS and hence they do not have numbers attached to them.

The KPIs at the IMPACT level could be

  • Increase in jobs in the manufacturing sector, as compared to a base year – say 2014-15.
  • Increase in the share of manufacturing sector in the overall GDP, as compared to a base year – say 2014-15.

KPIs at Overall Outcomes could be

  • Increase in power generation, as compared to a base year – say 2014-15.
  • Increase in roads, port capacities, as compared to a base year – say 2014-15.
  • Geographically even (even skewed towards the poorer states) distribution of manufacturing across the country (increased manufacturing only in say Western India will be of little use to youth in Uttar Pradesh or the North East and will only increase inequality within the country.)
  • Increase in the number of youth opting for technical education.
  • Geographically even (even skewed towards the poorer states) distribution of availability of technical education.
  • Improvement in output of primary sector – agriculture, mining etc

KPIs at the Intermediary Outcomes level could be

  • Land acquisition policy (Act) passes Parliament with broad based support of opposition and civil society.
  • Increased allocation for infrastructure development (roads, power, ports, technical educational institutions etc), as compared to a base year – say 2014-15.
  • Increased spend on infrastructure development, as compared to a base year – say 2015-16.
  • Increase in Private Public Partnerships in the infrastructure space that are formulated and take off the ground.
  • Policy for promotion of manufacturing sector announced and implemented.
  • Tax breaks for Indian and foreign manufacturers in place.
  • Increase in number of technical training institutions in India, geographically spread out.
  • Comprehensive reform of higher education curricula and pedagogy with increased engagement with industry.
  • Increase in number of process improvement patents filed and granted.
  • Improvement in input-output ratios in the primary sector, as compared to a base year of say 2014-15.

It is NOT all about job creation and economics. Important issues related to governance, social justice, environment also need to be tracked. Thus for instance, I would like the Make in India campaign to track KPIs like
  • Environmental costs of manufacturing units being set up (working out Social Rates of Return to ensure that the whole exercise is net positive).
  • Whether young women and youth belonging to the marginalised sections of society are benefitting, even disproportionately so.
  • How much of the wealth created is leaving the country in terms of profits / dividends? I expect some of it to move away of course but would like to see a major part to stay back in India.

End notes

Just having KPIs is of no use if the means to getting authentic data (not political spin) is not established. Also needed is for accountability mechanisms established at all levels of the system with systems of rewards and punishments for meeting / not meeting the KPIs.  If this does not happen, what we will have is a superb slogan (intent) and no outcomes.